LAST UPDATE NEWS

EUR/USD

After the recovery has pushed back above the right hand shoulder resistance at $1.1880 the outlook has changed to being far more positive for the bulls once more. This breach of the October resistance means that EUR/USD reached a nine week high at yesterday’s high of $1.1960. An intraday drop away has left a negative candle but as yet this is nothing for the bulls to be unduly concerned about. It is likely that this will be another unwinding move within the three week uptrend. The breakout at $1.1880 is now supportive near term but the uptrend is further back at $1.1785 today and there is still room for further unwind. The momentum indicators are now positively configured on a medium term basis, with the MACD lines rising above neutral and all RSI, Stochastics and MACD lines confirming the move to a nine week high. Look to buy into support with the hourly chart showing support in the band $1.1850/$1.1890 and momentum having unwound to renew upside potential.

GBP/USD

Cable continues to probe for a confirmed breakout above the October high at $1.3335. There have been several occasions in recent days where the market has looked to make the break only for the move to lose traction. Subsequently in the three consecutive completed sessions where $1.3335 has been tested, the bulls have failed. This has resulted in yesterday’s corrective looking negative candle which ended closing around the day low. There does though seem to be another attempt at the resistance underway this morning, and it will be interesting to see how the bulls react to another failure to breakout on a closing basis. Momentum indicators are more positively configured, with the MACD lines now tracking higher above neutral, however there is a nagging doubt with the RSI struggling around 60. A two week uptrend is holding on the daily chart and the important level to watch is $1.3275. Hourly momentum looks supportive again but the bulls really need to confirm a breach of $1.3335, which would then open $1.3450.

USD/JPY

Rallies remain a chance to sell on Dollar/Yen as the market continues to track lower within a sharper downtrend that is now nearing two weeks in length. Each time the pair bounces, the sellers resume control at lower levels and the market continues lower. The old pivot around 111.00 is now being tested however there is an increasing concern that now the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 111.35 has been breached to the downside there is a potential for the 50% Fib level to come into play at 109.35. Momentum indicators are increasingly correctively configured now with the MACD lines falling below neutral, the Stochastics firmly below 20 and RSI below 40. The latest rally failed at 111.62 which becomes the key resistance near term and rallies remain a chance to sell. The hourly chart shows the overnight rebound failed around a near term pivot resistance at 111.30. A retest of yesterday’s low at 110.85 and further weakness can be expected.

Gold

Gold continues to move mildly higher in its run of higher lows and higher highs in the past few weeks. This move is now putting pressure on the long term pivot range $1300/$1310 and it was interesting to see yesterday’s high of $1299.10 before the market backed away again. The resistance at $1300/$1310 would be a key break, so it is not unexpected that the initial move has been rebuffed. However, the technical outlook remains positive for continued pressure, with the RSI rising into the mid-50s and MACD lines beginning to push above neutral. Friday’s low at $1285.70 is initially supportive but more as a gauge of the test of resistance rather than any failure of the continued run of support. The move on the long term pivot also seems to be running with the US tax reform progress and this is still likely to be a driver of any breakout. Considering the studied move on the resistance a breakout is likely to be key, with October’s high of $1306 now clearly in sight. Key support building around $1275.